Market Swoons & Jittery Vibes - Some Good Reasons To Sit Tight
After hitting an all-time high a month ago, the stock market has taken a sudden and sharp turn lower in just two trading days. The selloff was triggered by a soft jobs data report last Friday which quickly changed the narrative from a soft economic landing to a looming recession. Adding fuel to the market fire was a surprise interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan which induced panic and an unwinding of speculative trades around the Japanese currency.
Stock market corrections are normal and to be expected unless they happen. A lot is unfolding quickly and feeling anxious is normal. Succumbing to the panic is not a good strategy but when these market swoons happen, it is always productive to have perspective.
The S&P 500 is now down 8% from its high last month. As shown below, market downdrafts of this magnitude and even worse and are to be expected when investing longer term.
The recent market swoosh is driven more by excessive borrowing for speculative trades, crowded technology stock trades and raw emotion in my view. I prefer these types of reasons versus fundamental issues like deteriorating profits. In fact, second quarter earnings so far have been solid with 78% of companies reporting positive earnings surprises. This is higher than the 10-year average 1.
Despite the doomsayers, the U.S. economy in the current third quarter still looks solid as shown by the current Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP estimate in the 2.5% range:
A hotly contested debate is why, when and how much the Fed should cut interest rates. Sometimes the Fed chops rates because they believe a recession may be looming, but that is not always the case. Importantly, staying invested in stocks once the Fed starts lowering rates during a recession or non-recession timeframes has yielded handsome returns as shown below.
But how much will this market swoon will impact most of you over the longer term? I’ve been investing and writing about markets for over three decades and believe that the answer is most likely little to none. There will always be something to worry about and investing in stocks involves risk which is why longer-term returns are attractive. However, it really isn’t investments that get tested in volatile markets; it’s investors. Right now, many (speculative?) investors seem to be too focused on the short-term and neglecting a lot about the longer run.
It is impossible to know when this panic-induced selling stops. However, as shown below, this too shall pass.
“Don’t just do something; sit there!”
Jack Bogle, Founder & CEO of Vanguard Investments
Sitting tight during wide market swings is certainly difficult. However, with an appropriately diversified portfolio and understanding that markets bottom through a process, navigating through market tumult without constant second-guessing can be much less stressful.